2008 Season Preview

Welcome to the ILTDW's 2008 Red Sox season "pre"-view. Most likely, if you're here you know why the "pre" is in quotes...we're technically 2 games into the season, but as far as I'm concerned those Tokyo games never happened. So I'm not going to make any outlandish predictions like Dice will have an inconsistent first outing or that Manny will rip out of the gates with a HR and 5 RBIs in his first two games...I'm not that dirty...so, let's just forget about the jet lag specials and concern ourselves with the real season, beginning tomorrow...yes, I'm nothing if not a procrastinator...

So, let's begin with our expectations for the 2008 Sox, and why beat around the bush, this is a mulligan year. I know, I know...blasphemy...and though you may not know me I am one of those Sox fans that goes nuts over a poorly thrown slider that leads to a run in what will eventually be a meaningless late April or early May game, so how can I just give this year away without the hope of a repeat? Well, I'm not...I really do hope we repeat...I love that we brought nearly everyone back from a team that basically led the division and the majors wire to wire last year...they earned the chance to repeat as a whole squad...but let's face it, that strategy rarely if ever works...baseball is just a reeeeeeeeaaaaallllly hard sport in which to repeat a championship. So, while I'll agonize over every pitch, bitch about managerial decisions and criticize sloppy or poor play as we go, just like I do every year, I have to enter this season with the realistic notion that we're probably not going to repeat, mathematically speaking...or so I keep telling myself...and let's face it, it's pretty hard to complain as a Sox fan right now (or really a Boston sports fan in general, but I digress)...if you had told me after Aaron Boone's HR sailed out of Yankee Stadium in 2003 that we'd win 2 of the next 4 WS, I'd have punched you...hard...for trying to give me hope...but here we are, we've done it, and so it's hard to come into this season hoping for anything more than an enjoyable, competitive season...

Yes, I said competitive...of course I won't be happy if we mail it in and have a truly crappy season...assuming everyone stays healthy I expect this team to win between 90 and 96 games, compete for the AL East title, make the playoffs and put up a fight once there...how can we not at least expect that with the team coming back nearly whole...but there are some factors that made last year's title run possible that simply cannot be expected this year, and they'll make the difference in the end...like what you ask?

1) Pitching - two important things about our pitching from last year...1-5 we were better than most teams because of our health and depth...we simple can't expect the same this year...Schilling went down for a while last year, but came back with a new approach and was solid in the post-season...now he's battling a more severe injury that'll force some of the young guns to pitch more, harder and past their experience...Beckett's back is already flaring up and with his history a fully healthy 2008, while I'm hoping for it, isn't likely...so, with a little more drama in the rotation we just have to hope we get healthy and hot for the stretch run...and we might, but it worries me...it'll cost us a few games throughout the season and in a competitive AL that could hurt down the stretch and into the playoffs...

2) The rookie factor - Pedroia, Ellsbury and Oki all played WAY over their heads last year...now don't get me wrong, they're all solid to good players, but the numbers they put up last year just can't be counted on again...not to mention the infusion of life that they provided...you just can't get that a second time...Buccholz will be the only real new life on this team this year, just about every other roster spot is filled by someone who's not going anywhere (SS maybe the exception) and even if we did get some young blood up, you really couldn't even expect them to be as absurdly good as the guys last year were...ok, so we should expect better years from Dice, JD Drew and Lugo, and hopefully a full year of Manny, but again, would you bet on any of that? I wouldn't, and when you add in how hot Youk was a lot of the year, a career year from Mikey Lowell and a new bench, I'd say that just about evens out...bottom line, this team will surprise people less than last year's and we should expect an overall decrease in performance from more guys versus whose performance should improve...sad, but true...

3) Better competition - We stayed the same, and like I said before, I'm glad we did...those guys earned it and they're certainly good enough to put together another run...it's possible...but we have to admit that the AL, while very strong last year, got even stronger. The Yankees generally took a step backwards because of their rotation, but look at every other contender from last year...starting with the playoff teams. The Indians, brought back a great young nucleus with strong pitching that's going to only be hungrier after our boys rallied to beat them last year...another blog some time on the whole "team that gets its heart broken the year before coming back hungrier" thing later, but you get my drift...Angels, stronger...they added Torii Hunter and still have a strong rotation and a very strong bullpen. Now throw in a MUCH improved Tigers team, a better Blue Jays squad and a scary young, but scary talented Devil Rays team (making the AL East pluckier if not better), the Mariners adding some pitching and the other perennial possibilities (A's, White Sox) and this is going to be a battle...we might get out of the AL, but if we do the road will likely be even tougher than it was last year...

So, those are the three main reasons we won't win it, on top of the whole hard to repeat angle...so, without numbering them, the main reason we will have a great season are that we're still a patient, battle-tested offense that is capable of scoring runs in bunches and we have a talented and deep rotation that's anchored a reliable bullpen. We can win blowouts, we can win close games and we flat out know how to win now (boy, it feels good to say that) which shouldn't be underrated...otherwise flawed teams that know how to win and remember what winning is like are SUPER dangerous, especially when the pressure is on...so let's buckle up and get ready for another run...

Some individual predictions:

Tek: same as always, .270/15/77 and he'll call a hell of a ballgame, every game...love the C

Yooooouuuuuukkkk: .293/14/71

Dusty: Drops to earth a little...less people taken by surprise...I'll say .286/8/55 but he'll score 100

Lugo: Can't possibly be as bad, can he? Let's hope not...for his sake, .278/7/51 and he'll steal 30

Mikey Lowell: He'll still hit a crapload of doubles, but the HRs drop off...no way he repeats last year, especially if Papi is healthy...I'll go .285/16/90 and 45 doubles...and I'll take it with his glove alllll day...

Manny: He'll stay mostly healthy and put up .305/32/109 with an OBP around .400

Jacoby: .589/78/265...the way most people talk about him, he's already the next superhero with a "B" on his hat...I love the kid, but let's be real...the speed will obviously help is average, but he'll have some bumps along the way and the Coco battle will take its toll before they trade him mid-season...for real I'll say he straightens it out in the end and goes .289/7/42 and steals 30 bags too, but barely...

JD Drew: DL for about 40 games...can you f-ing believe he's out already? Which Care Bear is he? He'll end up with about 400 ABs and he'll go .283/12/67...thank GOD he's here for 4 more years...

Papi: Power comes back with the knee healthy, so the average dips a little, .296/39/122

The rotation:

Josh "The Assassin" Beckett: a little time on the DL and some late-season rest will keep him short of 20 wins this year...we'll say 18-8, 3.78, 188

Dice: A better second year ERA and WHIP wise, but similar results in the W/L department...still figuring out AL hitters and this bigger baseball that robs him of his whole arsenal (or so I think)...let's say 15-7, 3.90, 205

Wake: He's Wake...who the frick knows...just for giggles, 14-10, 4.21, 145

J-Les: Solid year back, but still walks too many guys which will get better as the year goes on...a better second half and overall 14-8, 3.98, 168

Clay: He'll get some starts now, lose some time to Bartolo and Schill later, so let's say 8-6, 4.15, 92

Schill: Ouch...thanks for sacrificing your ankle and your arm for the two titles Schill you deserve the farewell tour, so enjoy it...let's say 7-5, 3.88, 67 and if we're lucky a couple of solid post-season starts...

Bartolo: Great gamble by Theo pays off...gets a bunch of starts, and goes 12-5, 3.72, 105...gets most of his starts between Clay and Schill and pitches well enough to make the post-season roster a discussion if he keeps his huge melon off of the DL

Pap: Wild Thing himself...I just don't see how you hit this kid...he's not exactly fooling people though his repertoire is getting wider and more versatile...bottom line, as long as he can throw straight cheese and locate like he does, good f-ing luck...38 for 4o in save opps, 1.28, 58 Ks in 52 innings...

More later...til next time, GO SAWX!!!

Intro and "cut me some slack"

Hi there...if you haven't read the sidebar, I'm a huge Sox fan that's going to cover every game I can and add op/ed stuff as necessary (determined either by my mental state or responses that I need to make)...let's have fun with this and please understand (if you've happened across here before the 2008 season) that I'm just getting this started, so cut me some slack while I figure this all out...

Thanks!